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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 64

2018-10-12 10:55:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 120855 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 64 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MADEIRA ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 31.0W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 65SE 65SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 31.0W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 32.5W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.1N 26.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 170SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.2N 20.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.6N 15.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.0N 13.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.0N 12.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 30.0N 13.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 28.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 31.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Leslie Graphics

2018-10-12 07:48:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 05:48:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 03:22:08 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-10-12 07:46:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Oct 12 the center of Leslie was located near 31.4, -32.4 with movement ENE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 63A

2018-10-12 07:46:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 120546 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 63A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 200 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 ...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 32.4W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE AZORES ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM W OF MADEIRA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Madeira Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 32.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie could transition into a post-tropical low by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island beginning early Saturday. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could lead to flash flooding and landslides over mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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