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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 65A
2018-10-12 19:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 121749 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 65A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 200 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 ...HURRICANE LESLIE RACING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 26.1W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF THE AZORES ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Madeira Island Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of Leslie. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 26.1 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 33 mph (54 km/h). A fast motion toward the east-northeastward is expected to continue through Saturday morning, followed by a slower eastward motion late Saturday through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will pass north of Madeira Island on Saturday, and approach the southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Saturday night, and move inland over portions of the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Leslie is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night. Additional weakening is forecast on Sunday, with Leslie expected to dissipate by Monday after it moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly to the south of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island beginning early Saturday. Post-tropical Leslie will likely bring strong winds to portions of Portugal and Spain Saturday night and Sunday. Please see products from your local meteorological service for more information on this hazard. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) across southern and central portions of Portugal and Spain through Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday and will reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 65
2018-10-12 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 121438 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 65 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 Leslie's cloud pattern continues to feature a central dense overcast, but with only hints of an eye in visible imagery. A partial northern eyewall was noted on a 0910Z SSMIS overpass. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased slightly, and based on this, the initial intensity has been conservatively nudged down to 75 kt. The wind field is quite large, especially south of the center, as confirmed by a pair of recent ASCAT passes, and the initial wind radii have been adjusted using those data. The initial motion estimate is now 070/28. Leslie is moving quickly east-northeastward on the southern side of a powerful longwave trough centered over the north Atlantic. The track forecast reasoning has changed since the last advisory, with the GFS, ECMWF, and now the 06Z run of the UKMET all showing a more eastward motion of Leslie toward the Iberian Peninsula as the cyclone is picked up by the aforementioned trough. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted significantly to the north and east, especially beyond 24 hours, but still lies to the south of and is slower than the GFS and ECMWF. Once the system moves inland, the low-level center should dissipate over the high terrain, but a 72 hour remnant low point is included for continuity purposes. Needless to say, confidence in the official track forecast beyond 24 hours is quite low given the recent shift in the models, and further adjustments will likely be necessary. The intensity forecast shows Leslie only slowly weakening as a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours due to a combination of cool SSTs and increasing shear from the trough. However, simulated satellite imagery and model fields suggest that Leslie will transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours, likely still at hurricane intensity as shown by the global models. Weakening is expected after the trough passes Leslie by, and the mid-level circulation will likely be sheared away by strong upper-level winds. Leslie is expected to bring significant rain and wind impacts to portions of Portugal and Spain by Sunday, and residents in those areas should refer to products from their local meteorological services for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 33.0N 28.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 34.2N 23.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 35.4N 17.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 36.0N 12.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 14/1200Z 36.3N 9.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 15/1200Z 37.0N 4.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-12 16:38:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 14:38:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 15:22:03 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-12 16:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE LESLIE CONTINUES RACING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...COULD BRING RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 12 the center of Leslie was located near 33.0, -28.0 with movement ENE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 65
2018-10-12 16:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 121435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 65 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 ...HURRICANE LESLIE CONTINUES RACING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...COULD BRING RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 28.0W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Madeira Island Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of Leslie. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 28.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). A fast east-northeastward motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning, followed by a slower eastward motion late Saturday through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will pass north of Madeira Island on Saturday, and approach the southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday, and move inland over portions of the Iberian Peninsula late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Leslie is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night or early Sunday. Additional weakening is forecast on Sunday, with Leslie expected to dissipate by Monday after it moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly to the south of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island beginning early Saturday. Post-tropical Leslie will likely bring strong winds to portions of Portugal and Spain on Sunday. Please see products from your local meteorological service for more information on this hazard. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) across southern and central portions of Portugal and Spain through Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday and will reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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