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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-24 04:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 228 FONT13 KNHC 240244 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-24 04:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 536 WTNT23 KNHC 240243 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 48.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 48.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 33.1N 48.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 33.1N 47.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.9N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-23 23:25:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:30 PM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Leslie was located near 33.5, -47.2 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Update Statement
2018-09-23 23:25:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 530 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 105 WTNT63 KNHC 232125 TCUAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 530 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 A Tropical Cyclone Update statement containing pre-formatted information was inadvertently transmitted under the Subtropical Storm Leslie header. Please disregard that product and refer to the 500 PM AST (2100 UTC) Public Advisory for the latest information on Leslie, which is also shown below. SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 47.2W ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-23 22:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 838 WTNT43 KNHC 232036 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Leslie's cloud pattern has not become any better organized, nor do we have any data to support a wind increase. The initial intensity is then kept at 35 kt. The evolution of Leslie is very complex and difficult to forecast. There is a possibility that Leslie will be absorbed by a larger low that is forecast to form nearby, or that Leslie could maintain its identity while rotating around the low. At this time NHC will maintain continuity and forecasts Leslie to be absorbed by the large low by 72 hours. No significant change in intensity or structure is anticipated until then. Leslie continues to be embedded within very light steering currents, and most likely the cyclone will merely meander today and tomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie will likely be steered eastward until it is absorbed. The track forecast is highly uncertain given the complex flow pattern surrounding the subtropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 33.5N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 33.4N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 33.2N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 33.2N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 33.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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