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Subtropical Depression Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2018-09-25 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 999 FONT13 KNHC 250837 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Subtropical Depression Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 8

2018-09-25 10:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 711 WTNT23 KNHC 250837 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 46.2W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 46.2W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.1N 44.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 180SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 34.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 240SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 36.1N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 180SW 240NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 270SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 36.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 270SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 35.3N 48.2W...SUBTROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 35.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 46.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Subtropical Depression Leslie Graphics

2018-09-25 05:21:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 03:21:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 03:22:00 GMT

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Subtropical Depression Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 7

2018-09-25 04:33:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 574 WTNT43 KNHC 250233 TCDAT3 Subtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 Leslie's appearance in satellite imagery hasn't changed much this evening. Deep convection is mainly occuring in bands well displaced to the southeast of the cyclone's center, and recent ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 30 kt, with the highest wind occuring in those bands. All indications are that Leslie will undergo a complicated transition over the next several days. Little change is expected with Leslie until it becomes post-tropical in about 24 hours. After that time, all of the global models suggest that Leslie will quickly strengthen as a result of substantial baroclinic forcing, likely reaching a peak intensity sometime between 48 and 72 h. At the same time, the cyclone will likely undergo a classic transition from frontal low to warm seclusion while the wind field rapidly expands, with 34-kt (gale-force) winds reaching several hundred miles from the cyclone's center. By 96 h, the models indicate that Leslie will once again become cut-off from the mid-latitude flow, and could begin to re-acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. While each of the global models handles the exact details of this complex evolution a little differently, confidence is increasing that Leslie will become a powerful extratropical cyclone over the central Atlantic over the next few of days. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased between 36 and 96 h, and is near a average of the global and regional dynamical model tracker output. The depression is currently moving slowly eastward with an initial motion of 090/3 kt. The guidance is in good agreement that Leslie will accelerate eastward as it becomes more embedded within an approaching frontal zone. A northward turn is expected by mid-week, followed by a bend back toward the west by the end of the week as Leslie strengthens, occludes, and eventually cuts off from the mid-latitude flow to the north. The NHC track forecast has not been significantly changed, and is near the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids at most forecast hours. However, it should be noted that spread in the guidance is high, especially by the end of the forecast period, so confidence in the track forecast at that time is low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 33.1N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Summary for Subtropical Depression Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-09-25 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINNING TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Leslie was located near 33.1, -47.1 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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