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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 11

2018-09-29 04:52:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 020 WTNT43 KNHC 290252 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 Convective banding has been consolidating to the south of Leslie's center since the afternoon, but recent scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds have decreased to 40 kt and the area of gale-force winds has decreased in size. The convective structure suggests that Leslie may be taking on some tropical characteristics, but since wave vapor imagery still shows the cyclone embedded within a complex deep-layer low, Leslie is still being designated as subtropical. Leslie is moving west-southwestward, or 255 degrees at 10 kt. Leslie is entrenched between several mid-tropospheric highs located to its east and west, and these features are expected to push Leslie slowly southwestward for the next 3 days. The track guidance is tightly clustered during this period, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one. After day 3, Leslie is likely to meander on days 4 and 5 in weak steering, and the updated official forecast has been adjusted southward and eastward at the end of the forecast period to account for the latest model solutions. Global model fields indicate that Leslie has migrated to the northwest of its parent upper-level low, which is putting it under a regime of moderate north-northeasterly shear. For the next 48 hours, this shear is expected to continue, and phase-space diagrams suggest that Leslie will be straddling the line between shallow and deep warm core. As a result, only modest strengthening is anticipated during this period, and the official forecast maintains Leslie as a subtropical storm through 48 hours. However, the transition to a tropical storm could occur any time during the next day or two. After 48 hours, Leslie should definitely be deep warm core, and more significant strengthening is expected, with the cyclone forecast to reach hurricane intensity by day 4. This scenario is shown by the various intensity models, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus aid and the Florida State Superensemble. If the statistical- dynamical models are correct, Leslie could be stronger by the end of the forecast period than is indicated in the NHC forecast. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a stronger extratropical low have already reached Bermuda, will soon reach the Lesser and Greater Antilles, and should reach portions of the east coast of the United States later this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 35.7N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 34.9N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 34.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 33.5N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 33.1N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 32.2N 55.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96H 03/0000Z 30.5N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-09-29 04:51:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO ROVE AROUND THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR QUITE AWHILE... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 28 the center of Leslie was located near 35.7, -49.4 with movement WSW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 11

2018-09-29 04:51:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 703 WTNT33 KNHC 290251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO ROVE AROUND THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR QUITE AWHILE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.7N 49.4W ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 49.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower west-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the next several days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie are affecting Bermuda and the northern Leeward Islands and will reach other portions of the Lesser Antilles, Greater Antilles, and Bahamas through Saturday. Swells are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States later this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 11

2018-09-29 04:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 032 WTNT23 KNHC 290251 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 49.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......220NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 900SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 49.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.9N 50.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 34.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.1N 53.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.2N 55.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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