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Tropical Storm Fred Graphics
2021-08-15 22:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 20:39:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 21:23:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-08-15 22:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 152035 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better organized this afternoon. The low-level circulation has become better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle. A ship near the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9. The track guidance shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h. A general north-northeastward motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north motion after landfall. The new NHC forecast track also is shifted a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west of the various consensus models. Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly vertical shear until landfall. However, the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago. Based on that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall intensities have been nudged upward. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley just after 60 h. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 26.8N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 33.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 35.8N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2021-08-15 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 152035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 8 10(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 18(18) 12(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 1 18(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) APALACHICOLA 34 17 47(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) APALACHICOLA 50 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 38 32(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 11 55(66) 7(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 30(30) 17(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 11(11) 15(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 10(10) 13(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 290N 870W 34 13 33(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-15 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO YANKEETOWN... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 the center of Fred was located near 26.8, -85.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 24A
2021-08-15 19:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151741 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...FRED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 85.2W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the eastern Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall, while Fred is expected to weaken quickly after moving inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Steinhatchee River to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning on Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early Monday near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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