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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-07 10:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 08:49:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 08:49:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-10-07 10:48:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070848 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Norbert has weakened as entrainment of dry air has disrupted the compact system. The center was partially exposed overnight, but recent infrared imagery shows a new burst of deep convection near the center. Microwave imagery and ASCAT scatterometer wind data indicated the center had drifted southwest from its previous position, as the storm is beginning to meander within the weak steering flow. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on the recent ASCAT-A overpass that showed a peak wind of 33 kt, as well as a T2.5 Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The intensity forecast for Norbert remains tricky given its small circulation and the presence of dry air in the surrounding environment. Sea-surface temperatures are more than sufficient for at least modest strengthening, but the question will be whether Norbert can survive the increased southeasterly shear that the SHIPS guidance calls for during the next 24-48 h. If so, Norbert may remain a tropical storm through the next 5 days. Alternatively, the shear and additional bouts of dry air entrainment could weaken the system to a depression or even a remnant low late in the forecast period. While small intensity changes due to diurnal fluctuations in convection are certainly possible, the official NHC forecast keeps Norbert's intensity forecast at 35 kt in consideration of the mixed signals noted in the latest intensity guidance. As previously mentioned, the center of Norbert has drifted to the southwest overnight. The storm is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days as distant Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has weakened the ridge that had been steering Norbert. Therefore, the forecast track through 48 h is more uncertain than usual given the potential for erratic motion as indicated by the diverging model solutions. By Friday, Norbert should begin moving slowly westward or west-northwestward as the ridge gradually builds to the north. The NHC track forecast remains fairly close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.0N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 13.9N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.0N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 14.1N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 14.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-07 10:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR IMPACTS THE COMPACT SYSTEM... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 the center of Norbert was located near 14.0, -107.1 with movement SW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 7
2020-10-07 10:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070846 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...NORBERT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR IMPACTS THE COMPACT SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 107.1W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 107.1 West. Norbert is drifting toward the southwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-10-07 10:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070846 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 12(16) 6(22) 2(24) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART
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