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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-12 23:11:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Sep 2016 20:43:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Sep 2016 21:07:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-09-12 22:42:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122042 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016 Ian remains poorly organized, with the bulk of the deep convection displaced well to the northeast of the low-level center due to strong vertical shear. The advisory intensity estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The global models suggest that some decrease in shear will occur in 36 to 48 hours, when the system moves on the northeast side of a partially cut off upper-level cyclone. This could permit a little strengthening to commence around that time, as reflected in the official forecast. This is slightly above the latest numerical model intensity consensus. By the end of the forecast period, or sooner, Ian should become embedded in a frontal zone over the north Atlantic and be transformed into an extratropical cyclone. Ian has turned to the right, and the initial motion estimate is now about 330/11 kt. The storm continues to move through a break in the subtropical ridge, and in a few days the flow ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough should cause Ian to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward. The official forecast lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, and is also close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 22.9N 50.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 24.3N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.2N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 28.5N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 30.7N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 35.7N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 45.0N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 54.5N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-09-12 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 12 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 122041 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 2100 UTC MON SEP 12 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-12 22:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN MOVING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 12 the center of IAN was located near 22.9, -50.7 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 2
2016-09-12 22:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 122040 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016 ...IAN MOVING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 50.7W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 50.7 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected for the next day or so. Some slow strengthening could begin by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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