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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-09-14 04:52:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140252 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 Ian's cloud pattern has changed little in organization since this afternoon. The low-level center remains patrially exposed to the south of a fan-shaped mass of deep convection. This structure is consistent with a deep-layer southwesterly vertical shear of nearly 40 kt associated with a mid- to upper-tropospheric cyclone to the west of the cyclone. A 0018Z ASCAT pass showed reliable surface winds near 45 kt well north of the center, which agrees with a TAFB satellite classifciation of T3.0. On this basis, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial motion estimate has been nudged a little more to the right than earlier today and is now 345/11 kt. Ian should continue to move generally northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic during the next 24 hours or so. A significant acceleration toward the northeast should occur in about 36 hours when a shortwave trough moving through Atlantic Canada approaches Ian. The NHC track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous one, especially after 24 hours, and is in agreement with the the latest track consensus aids. The SHIPS output indicates that the shear should decrease, beginning in about 12 hours, roughly around the time that Ian becomes co-located with the upper low to its west. The shear is forecast to reach a relative minimum 24 hours later while the flow aloft gradually becomes more diffluent. This baroclinic forcing is expected to result in some intensification while Ian remains over warm waters, though the cyclone could possess attributes of both a tropical and an extratropical cyclone. Extratropical transition is indicated in 2 to 3 days, with absorption by a larger extratropical storm system over the North Atlantic likely around 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 27.6N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 29.8N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 32.3N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 35.2N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 39.4N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 49.7N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-14 04:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 02:49:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Sep 2016 21:06:35 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-14 04:48:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 13 the center of IAN was located near 27.6, -52.8 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 7
2016-09-14 04:48:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140248 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 ...IAN SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 52.8W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 52.8 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northeast with a considerable increase in forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 7
2016-09-14 04:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140247 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0300 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 52.8W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 52.8W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.8N 53.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.3N 53.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.2N 51.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.4N 47.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 49.7N 33.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 52.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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