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Summary for Tropical Storm INGRID (AT5/AL102013)

2013-09-16 19:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...INGRID MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 the center of INGRID was located near 23.7, -98.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm INGRID Public Advisory Number 17A

2013-09-16 19:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161741 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 100 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 ...INGRID MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 98.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H....AND A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES INLAND. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm INGRID Graphics

2013-09-16 17:12:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2013 14:45:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2013 15:05:24 GMT

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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 17

2013-09-16 16:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161453 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT INGRID MADE LANDFALL NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT INGRID WAS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE HIGHEST WIND OBSERVED IN MEXICO WAS FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO THAT REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT WITH A GUST TO 56 KT AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT...AND THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. INGRID IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRE MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INGRID HAS NOT YET MADE THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN...AS THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD SOON...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST TO BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INGRID WEAKENS OVER LAND TONIGHT. INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0000Z 23.4N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1200Z 22.8N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2013-09-16 16:48:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 161448 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 19 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 32 58 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 67 23 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 25KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCO MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PESCO MX 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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