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Tropical Storm INGRID Public Advisory Number 16A

2013-09-16 13:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161158 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 700 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 ...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LA PESCA... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 97.8W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CABO ROJO HAS BEEN BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND THAT THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL WITHIN THE PAST HOUR NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO. AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF INGRID WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS INGRID MOVES INLAND TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane INGRID Graphics

2013-09-16 11:08:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2013 08:35:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2013 09:04:49 GMT

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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 16

2013-09-16 10:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160833 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED A LITTLE OVER INGRID...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. THE NHC WIND FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM PREDICTION. GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...ALONG WITH THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS GAINED A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6. HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST A LITTLE LATER TODAY AND A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS ALONG WITH INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LATTER FEATURE TYPICALLY INDUCES A LEFTWARD BEND IN THE MOTION FOR LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THIS REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM BOTH INGRID AND THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 23.4N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 23.3N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 22.3N 99.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 22.0N 100.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane INGRID (AT5/AL102013)

2013-09-16 10:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF INGRID APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 the center of INGRID was located near 23.4, -97.1 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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