je.st
news
Tag: grace
Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 24
2021-08-19 10:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GRACE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF COZUMEL AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE SPREADING ONSHORE NOW... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 87.2W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud * The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A hurricane warning will likely be required for portions of the Watch area later this morning or afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 87.2 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to west- northwestward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula during soon, move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A Weatherflow station located at Cancun, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 56 mph (88 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h), while another Weatherflow station located at Puerto Morelos, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 51 mph (83 km/h) a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h). On Cozumel, a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was observed at the Cozumel Lighthouse, while a sustained wind of 40 mph (77 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (103 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow site near the airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours, and tropical storm conditions are continuing to spread onshore. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland across the Yucatan Peninsula during the day today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo... 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later this morning, and along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
grace
advisory
Hurricane Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2021-08-19 10:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 190855 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 44(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 20(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 78 9(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MERIDA MX 50 9 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 24
2021-08-19 10:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190853 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE ALTAMIRA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..195NE 120SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 86.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.7N 100.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 87.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
grace
advisory
forecast
Hurricane Grace Graphics
2021-08-19 07:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 05:45:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 03:28:28 GMT
Tags: graphics
grace
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Summary for Hurricane Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-19 07:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE APPROACHING THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 the center of Grace was located near 19.9, -86.4 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Sites : [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] next »