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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 26

2021-08-19 22:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192050 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CAMPECHE * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 90.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 50SE 40SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 90.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 89.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.8N 92.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 99.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 90.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)

2021-08-19 19:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 1:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 the center of Grace was located near 20.5, -89.5 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 25A

2021-08-19 19:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191747 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 89.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 89.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed over the weekend. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to continue to move across the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico this evening through Friday. Grace is expected to make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher. Re-intensification is likely after the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace moves inland over central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Elevated water levels will gradually recede along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

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