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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 25

2021-08-19 16:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191444 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 Grace made landfall as a hurricane near Tulum, Mexico around 0945 UTC (445am CDT). A storm chaser in Tulum reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb at the time of landfall. Since then, the cyclone has moved further inland where observations are far more sparse, and we have no recent in situ observations to assist the intensity analysis. The intensity is therefore set at 55 kt, based in part on the inland decay wind model built into the SHIPS model. The central pressure estimate of 995 mb is likewise uncertain. Some additional weakening is likely this afternoon while Grace continues to cross the Yucatan peninsula. The tropical storm should emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and re-strengthening is anticipated shortly thereafter. Environmental conditions are expected to be quite conducive for strengthening, but it will likely take Grace at least a little time to redevelop its inner-core after disruption by land. That could act to limit the rate at which the cyclone will intensify at first. The HWRF and HMON both suggest that the most significant reintensification could occur in the last 12 hours before final landfall occurs in mainland Mexico, and that scenario seems likely. It would not be surprising if Grace strengthened slightly more between the 36 h forecast point over water and the 48 h point inland, particularly if the hurricane moves slightly slower, giving it more time over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, Grace should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Overall, the NHC intensify forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. Grace continues to move to the west near 16 kt. A westward or west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 12 hours or so, after which a strong-deep layer ridge extending well over the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern U.S. will steer Grace westward until landfall. Only minor adjustments were made to the official track forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. Although the tropical cyclone will quickly dissipate after it moves inland, the ridge will likely steer its remnants further westward toward the eastern North Pacific, where it could contribute to the formation of a new tropical cyclone there. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue today across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. 2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 20.2N 88.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 20/1200Z 20.6N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.4N 96.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0000Z 19.6N 101.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 25

2021-08-19 16:43:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 88.8W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Herrero and the Hurricane Warning from Punta Herrero to Tulum. The Hurricane Warning from Tulum to Cancun has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo, and a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 88.8 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed over the weekend. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to continue to move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. Grace will likely make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher. Additional weakening is possible while Grace moves across land today. Re-intensification is likely after the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace moves inland over central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread westward today across the northern Yucatan peninsula within the tropical storm warning area. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Elevated water levels will gradually recede along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2021-08-19 16:43:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 191443 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PESCA MX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 24(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 5( 5) 34(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MERIDA MX 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 25

2021-08-19 16:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191443 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA HERRERO AND THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM TULUM TO CANCUN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CAMPECHE * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 88.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 88.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 88.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 96.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.6N 101.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 88.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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