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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 27
2021-08-20 04:59:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200258 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GRACE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 91.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula east of Progresso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday or Friday night. Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane strength on Friday. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible into early Friday morning. Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maxim totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall Friday night. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-08-20 04:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200258 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EAST OF PROGRESSO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PROGRESSO TO CAMPECHE * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......140NE 50SE 40SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.8N 93.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N 98.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.6N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-20 01:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 23:41:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 21:28:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-20 01:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GRACE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 the center of Grace was located near 20.7, -91.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 26A
2021-08-20 01:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192341 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GRACE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 91.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 91.0 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning tomorrow. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to move away from the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, and continue moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Grace is expected to make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Intensification is likely now that the center has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace moves inland over central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall by early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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