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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-08-18 17:00:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 181500 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Grace is becoming better organized on satellite images with a comma-shaped cloud pattern, and the upper-level outflow remains well defined. Wind gusts well into the hurricane-force range were measured on Grand Cayman earlier this morning, along with some damage on the island. Recent flight-level and SFMR observations from both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support sustained 65-kt surface winds, so the system is being upgraded to a hurricane on this advisory. Although Grace is situated over waters of very high oceanic heat content, moderate northwesterly shear and only marginally moist mid-level air could slightly impede intensification. However, some additional strengthening is expected before landfall tonight or early Thursday. Weakening will occur due to Grace's passage over Yucatan, although that land mass has relatively low terrain. Reintensification is anticipated over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and the system should regain hurricane strength before reaching the east coast of mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is similar to the numerical model consensus. Grace has been moving west-northwestward near 13 kt. A prominent mid-tropospheric ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the cyclone for the next several days. This pattern should keep steering Grace on a west-northwestward to westward track for 72-96 hours. The track guidance models are in excellent agreement and little change has been made to the NHC track forecast compared to the previous few packages. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for a portion of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico later today. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning late tonight or early Thursday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for part of this area later today. 3. Over the next few days, heavy rainfall across the Cayman Islands as well as portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides possible in the Mexican state of Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 19.4N 82.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 19.7N 84.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 20.3N 87.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0000Z 20.6N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 20.5N 97.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 22/1200Z 20.0N 103.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-18 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT GRACE BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 the center of Grace was located near 19.4, -82.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 21
2021-08-18 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 181450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT GRACE BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 82.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch is discontinued for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 82.2 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move away from Grand Cayman today. Grace is expected to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico early Friday. Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the center of Grace reaches the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Cayman Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State of Mexico....4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides possible in Veracruz. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-08-18 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 181450 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 82.2W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 82.2W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.7N 84.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 90.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 82.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-08-18 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 181450 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 6(37) X(37) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 8(54) X(54) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 1(34) X(34) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X 20(20) 48(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) MERIDA MX 50 X 3( 3) 26(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) MERIDA MX 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 7 87(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) COZUMEL MX 50 1 73(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) COZUMEL MX 64 X 39(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BELIZE CITY 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 12 20(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GRAND CAYMAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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