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Tropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-05-23 10:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 381 WTNT41 KNHC 230830 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 Satellite images indicate that Ana has contracted significantly since yesterday and now has a compact area of moderate convection around the center. Given the tight low-level circulation, small radius of maximum wind, and compact central convection, Ana is now estimated to have transitioned from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory based on the earlier ASCAT data, which indicated that the tropical-storm-force winds were confined to the south side of the circulation. Ana is not expected to be around much longer. The storm is headed for an environment of lower SSTs, drier air, and increasing wind shear. All of these factors should cause the compact cyclone to lose strength and ultimately open into a trough in 24 to 36 hours. In fact, some of the models suggest that the storm could dissipate even sooner than that. The remnants of Ana will likely be absorbed by a cold front on Monday. The storm continues to increase its forward speed, and the initial motion is now estimated to be 045/10 kt. A faster motion to the northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 35.7N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 36.7N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 39.4N 53.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Ana Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-05-23 10:29:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 230829 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 0900 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 60.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 60.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.7N 58.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 39.4N 53.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-05-23 04:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230251 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 Ana continues to produce a small, but concentrated area of moderate convection near its center. The storm remains embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough axis, and convection near the center has not been deep or expansive enough to result in significant upper-level anticyclonic outflow. This structure suggests that the system remains subtropical. However, scatterometer imagery also indicates that Ana's radius of maximum winds is very small. A recent METOP-B ASCAT pass at 0054 UTC had a peak wind retrieval of 36 kt just southeast of Ana's center. Due to the small size of Ana's wind field and allowing for some undersampling of this instrument, the initial intensity was bumped up to 40 kt for this advisory. Ana has begun to accelerate to the northeast and its initial motion is now 050/8 kt. A continued northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed is expected as deep-layer southwesterly steering flow increases between a deepening mid-latitude trough to the northwest and a subtropical high to the southeast. The upper-level trough axis that Ana remains centered in has kept the tiny cyclone in a small region of light upper-level flow, allowing convection to persist near the center. However, as Ana accelerates northeastward, this trough axis will gradually decay and upper-level northerly flow is expected to increase after 12 h. The resulting increase in northeasterly shear will import dry mid-latitude air and likely strip away the remaining convection associated with Ana by tomorrow night. The latest intensity forecast calls for slow weakening after 12 h with dissipation by 48 h, though it is possible that Ana could dissipate earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 35.0N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 35.8N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 37.5N 56.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 41.1N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-05-23 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 230247 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 0300 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 61.4W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 61.4W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 61.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.8N 60.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 37.5N 56.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 41.1N 50.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 61.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-05-22 22:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 222039 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 While Ana continues to produce convection near the center, the amount of convection has decreased during the past several hours. In addition, earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB suggest the cyclone has weakened. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. A combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause Ana to gradually weaken, and most of the global models now show the system decaying to a trough in about 36 h. The new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening with dissipation just after that time, and it is possible that Ana could dissipate earlier than currently forecast. Ana made a small counter-clockwise loop during the past few hours, and the initial motion is now 050/4. A continued northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed, due to the southwesterly flow associated with a developing mid-latitude cyclone to the north and northwest, is expected until the cyclone dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 34.5N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 34.9N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 38.3N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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