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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-05-10 16:40:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 101440 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 1500 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.4W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.4W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.4N 111.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.2N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-05-10 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres remains a sheared tropical storm with a small ball of deep convection displaced just east of the partially exposed low-level center. All three scatterometer passes missed Andres. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on consensus subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective intensity estimates of 37 kt and 35 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. The initial motion estimate is 325/04 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast of reasoning. The latest NHC track model guidance continues to show Andres moving slowly northwestward around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge while gradually weakening and becoming more vertically shallow. The ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to strengthen and build westward over the next few days, which is expected to gradually nudge Andres west-northwestward on Tuesday and westward on Wednesday. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and remains along the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models, and the HCCA and GFEX consensus track models. Despite the ragged looking cloud pattern depicted in infrared satellite imagery, night-viz and passive microwave satellite data indicate that the low-level circulation has actually improved a little since the previous advisory. However, the combination of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and entrainment of drier and more stable low- to mid-level air from the west and northwest is expected to induce gradual weakening later today. Additional weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday as Andres moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures, with the cyclone expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by Thursday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially just and update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 16.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-05-10 10:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0900 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.1W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.1W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-05-10 04:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100235 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0300 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.8N 109.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.8N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.9N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.9N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-05-09 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092035 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 The convective cloud pattern of Andres is rather ragged-looking at this time, and the system continues to show little evidence of banding features. However the cyclone is producing some very cold cloud tops over the eastern portion of the circulation. A partial scatterometer pass did not show tropical-storm-force winds, but it is believed that these could be occuring in the strong convection to the east of the center. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environment ahead of Andres looks very hostile, with increasing west-southwesterly shear and dry air in the mid- to lower-troposphere. Therefore, a weakening trend should begin tomorrow and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low in about 48 hours which is also indicated by the global model guidance. The scatterometer observations showed that the center was somewhat elongated zonally, but it appears to be a little south of the previously estimated track. Andres should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or so, and then turn westward in 48-60 hours, following the low-level steering flow. The official track forecast is south of much of the model guidance on account of the more southward center location. This is not far from the latest GFS model solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.0N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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