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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-05-11 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. Earlier today, strong west-southwesterly shear caused the thunderstorm activity to be stripped away from the center, and now Andres is nearly devoid of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak estimates. Andres is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday morning due to a combination of the continued strong shear and cooler SSTs along the forecast track. These hostile conditions should cause the remnant low to dissipate in a couple of days, which is shown by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. After moving northwestward during the past day or two, Andres has now turned sharply to the west due to the decoupling of the low- and mid-level centers. A continued westward motion at about 5 kt is expected until the cyclone dissipates. This forecast is located to the south of the previous one due to the change in the initial motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-05-11 04:31:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-05-10 22:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102036 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Hostile environmental conditions are taking a toll on Andres this afternoon. After a small area of convection persisted downshear of the cyclone's partially exposed low-level center earlier today, recent satellite images show rapidly warming cloud tops in the northeast quadrant with no signs of new convection anywhere near the center. Additionally, the low-level center now appears to be completely exposed. Although T2.5 18Z Dvorak classifications were received from SAB and TAFB, recent satellite trends and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates indicate the system has weakened since that time. Therefore, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt with this advisory, making Andres a tropical depression. Andres appeared to take a bit of a northward jog earlier today, but the current estimated motion is 330/06 kt. The weakening, shallow cyclone is expected to turn more west-northwestward and westward on Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of a building low-level ridge to its north. The latest track forecast is close to the center of the guidance envelope, with just a slight adjustment to the right of track from the previous forecast. An upper-level ridge to the northwest of the cyclone is producing increasing vertical wind shear over Andres. This, combined with some drier mid-level air encroaching on the cyclone from the west, will continue weakening Andres through its dissipation by midweek. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest the system will struggle to generate any new convection overnight, and this forecast shows Andres becoming a remnant low on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 16.0N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 16.5N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 16.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 17.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 16.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-05-10 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 102034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 2100 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.5N 110.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.8N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.0N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-05-10 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 101448 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres continues to battle vertical wind shear this morning. Early visible satellite imagery indicates the broadened circulation of the cyclone is exposed and displaced to the southwest of a recent burst of deep convection. Overall, the convective coverage has noticeably decreased during the past several hours, with warming infrared cloud top temperatures noted where a convective band wrapped around the eastern semicircle overnight. A blend of the objective ADT and SATCON estimates with subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB supports holding the initial intensity at 35 kt. Hopefully, scatterometer data will become available this afternoon to better assess the intensity of Andres. The center of the cyclone was adjusted a bit northward this morning based on recent visible imagery, and its estimated motion is now 330/05 kt. A general northwestward motion is expected today as Andres moves around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. As the cyclone spins down and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn more west-northwestward and then westward under the influence of a building low-level ridge to its north. The forecast track has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast to account for the center adjustment, and the new track lies closer to the reliable consensus aids including HCCA. Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, along with drier and more stable low- to mid-level air approaching from the west, suggest a weakening trend is imminent. Andres is expected to become a tropical depression later today and then continue weakening through midweek as environmental conditions become increasingly hostile. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest the cyclone will become devoid of convection by tonight, and so this forecast shows Andres becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.4N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 16.4N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 16.2N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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