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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-05-22 22:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 222035 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 2100 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 62.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 62.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 34.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.3N 54.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-05-22 16:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 221438 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the central convection associated with Ana has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with a complex of small bands near the center at this time. The initial intensity will be held at 40 kt based on the latest intensity estimate from TAFB, although recently-received ASCAT data suggests this could be a little generous. Although the cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, Ana remains a subtropical storm based on its position near the center of a large upper-level low pressure system and the current lack of anticyclonic upper-level outflow. The initial motion is 270/3. Ana and the large low it is embedded in are expected to turn northward later today as a developing mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Canada and the New England states erodes the subtropical ridge west of Ana. After that, the storm is expected to turn northeastward on the southeast side of the mid-latitude cyclone. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than, the various consensus models. Little change in strength is expected for the next 12 h or so. After Ana recurves, a combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. The large-scale models agree upon Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in 36-48 h, and the official forecast shows this happening just after 48 h. The remnant trough will likely be absorbed by a cold front associated with the mid-latitude cyclone shortly thereafter. The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 34.3N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 34.8N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 35.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 37.2N 57.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 39.7N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-05-22 16:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 221437 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 1500 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 63.0W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 63.0W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 34.8N 62.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.8N 61.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 37.2N 57.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 39.7N 52.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 63.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-05-22 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220832 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system that is located a couple of hundred miles northeast of Bermuda has become better organized overnight. The low now has a well-defined center of circulation, some central deep convection, and thunderstorms that are organized in curved bands to the north and northeast of the center. The system is considered a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical cyclone since it is still entangled with an upper-level low as evident in water vapor satellite images, but it does have some tropical characteristics as well. The initial intensity is estimated to be 40 kt, which makes the system Subtropical Storm Ana. Ana is moving slowly to the west-southwest with the initial motion estimated to be 240/3 kt. An even slower motion is expected later this morning, and Ana is forecast to meander through tonight while it remains embedded within the upper-level low in weak steering currents. However, a mid- to upper-level trough moving off of Atlantic Canada should cause Ana to turn northeastward thereafter and accelerate in that direction on Sunday and Monday. The NHC track forecast lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. Ana will likely change little in strength in the short term, but a combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. Nearly all of the models show Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in about 48 to 60 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. The remnant trough will likely be absorbed by a front shortly thereafter. The Bermuda Weather Service has a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the island of Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 34.2N 62.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 34.3N 62.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 35.1N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 37.9N 55.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-05-22 10:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220831 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 0900 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 62.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 62.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.3N 62.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.1N 61.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.9N 55.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 62.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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