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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-05-09 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 108.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 108.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 108.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-05-09 16:54:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091454 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 Although the system lacks well-defined convective banding features, Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 35 kt. This is consistent with a data T-number based on a shear pattern with the low-level center displaced within 3/4 degrees to the west of the edge of the main area of deep convection, as suggested by recent microwave imagery. Since earlier scatterometer data indicated that the system was close to tropical storm strength, and given the latest Dvorak analyses, the cyclone is being named. Andres is the earliest tropical storm on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, just beating out Adrian of 2017. Increasing southwesterly to westerly shear and drier air to the west of the cyclone should prevent any significant additional strengthening. The official forecast generally follows the numerical guidance and shows the system degenerating into a remnant low in 48 hours, as in the previous advisory. The initial motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/5. Andres should move along the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge for the next couple of days and turn westward in the low-level flow as an increasingly shallow circulation. The official track forecast is on the southern side of the model guidance suite. This also close to the latest latest corrected consensus, or HCCA, track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.1N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 15.4N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 15.9N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 16.2N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 16.5N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 16.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 16.3N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-05-09 16:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 091448 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 1500 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 107.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 107.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.8N 108.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.4N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.9N 109.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.4N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-05-09 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090857 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 Satellite images and scatterometer surface wind data indicate that the low pressure area southwest of Mexico that the NHC has been monitoring for the past few days has acquired sufficient organized deep convection and has developed a well-defined inner-core wind field for the system to be designated as the first tropical depression of the 2021 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season... albeit six days early. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 30-kt surface winds noted in 0359 UTC and 0453 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C, respectively, scatterometer satellite data. There were some 35-kt wind vectors present east of the center, but those appeared to be rain-contaminated at that time. The 30-kt initial intensity is also supported by a 0600 UTC TAFB satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt using a curved-band feature. The initial motion estimate is 325/04 kt. For the next day or two, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak subtropical ridge that extends westward from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico across central Mexico to just north of the system. The ridge is expected to build steadily westward over the next few days, resulting in the cyclone turning westward on Tuesday and then moving west-southwestward on Wednesday and Thursday. The HHC track forecast follows the overall trend of the consensus models TVCE and HCCA, but lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope in anticipation of the system weakening and becoming a shallow cyclone by early Tuesday, after which it should be steered more by the low-level easterly to northeasterly trade-wind flow Recent satellite trends suggest that the depression currently is not far from tropical storm status, and SHIPS intensity data indicate that the deep-layer shear is favorable for some additional strengthening. However, shear analyses from UW-CIMSS reveal that moderate southwesterly to westerly mid-level shear is currently displacing the convection to the northeast and east of the low-level center, and this unfavorable pattern is expected to hinder overall development. As a result, the cyclone is only forecast to become a low-end tropical storm before significant deep-layer shear begins to adversely affect the system by late Monday. During the period Tuesday through Thursday, very hostile wind shear in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures cooling to near 26-deg C beneath the cyclone should result in the system degenerating into a remnant low, with dissipation expected by early Friday, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly higher than the consensus models IVCN and HCCA for the next 24 hours, and then closely follows those models thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.8N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 16.2N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 16.2N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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depression
Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-05-09 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 090832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0900 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 107.7W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 107.7W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.5N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.2N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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