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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-05-19 04:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 573 WTNT21 KNHC 190251 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 72.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 72.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.9N 70.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.4N 67.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...190NE 90SE 90SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.7N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...170NE 60SE 60SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 32.3N 64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.9N 64.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 72.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-05-18 22:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 630 WTNT41 KNHC 182039 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 Although the center of Arthur did not make landfall in the North Carolina Outer Banks, it passed within about 20 n mi southeast of Cape Hatteras around 1500 UTC. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts have been reported at several automated observing sites on and near the Outer Banks, with the highest sustained wind of 34 kt at Alligator River Bridge earlier this afternoon. Deep convection continues over the northeastern portion of Arthur's circulation, but visible imagery has recently shown an increase in separation between low-level center and the convective activity. This is the result of increasing southwesterly shear and the beginning of the cyclone's extratropical transition. The initial intensity remains 45 kt, which was in agreement with the earlier aircraft data. As the cyclone completes its extratropical transition, some strengthening is forecast due to baroclinic processes. After 24 hours, little change in strength is expected until the frontal gradients decrease on Wednesday. The system should gradually spin down after that time, and dissipate by late in the week. The initial motion estimate is 045/14 kt. Arthur should continue northeastward this evening, but is expected to turn eastward Tuesday morning as the cyclone becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. Troughing over the central and western Atlantic should cause the Arthur to turn southeastward on Wednesday when the steering flow becomes northwesterly. Little change was required to the previous NHC official forecast and the updated track again lies between the GFS, ECMWF, and the multi-model consensus. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 36.1N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 36.9N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 37.0N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0600Z 36.2N 66.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1800Z 34.8N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z 31.5N 64.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-05-18 22:39:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 182039 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 2100 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 73.9W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 73.9W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 74.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.9N 71.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.0N 68.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 36.2N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 90SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.8N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 31.5N 64.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 73.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-05-18 16:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 181442 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 Arthur has become a little better organized this morning with an overall increase in convection and banding noted since overnight. The first couple of reconnaissance aircraft passes through the center have shown that the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb. The plane has also reported several believable SFMR winds of 38-43 kt, and the anemometer on buoy 41025 at an elevation of only 4 m has reported a peak 1-minute wind of 37 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 45 kt. The forward speed of Arthur has continued to increase and the estimated motion is north-northeast at 14 kt. The cyclone should turn northeastward later today and begin moving away from the North Carolina Outer Banks as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west. By Tuesday, Arthur is forecast to turn eastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, a deepening trough over the central and western Atlantic is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southeastward as the steering flow turns northwestward. The GFS and ECMWF are now in relatively good agreement on this scenario and the new NHC track forecast lies between those typically reliable models and the multi-model consensus aids. Although the vertical shear is increasing over the storm and it is soon moving over cooler waters, some strengthening due to baroclinic process is predicted over the next 24 hours. The storm should merge with a frontal boundary late tonight or early Tuesday which will complete Arthur's transition to an extratropical cyclone. By Wednesday, the post-tropical cyclone should begin to weaken as the frontal gradients decrease. The post-tropical cyclone should dissipate in about 96 h. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there today. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 35.1N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 37.2N 70.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0000Z 36.8N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1200Z 35.5N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-05-18 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 144 WTNT21 KNHC 181441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 1500 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 75.2W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 75.2W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 75.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.2N 70.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.8N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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