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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-05-17 04:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 127 WTNT41 KNHC 170253 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the tropical cyclone east of Florida has recently found maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of 45-46 kt to the southeast and east of the center, which equates to surface winds of 34-35 kt, along with uncontaminated SFMR surface wind speeds of 33-36 kt. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial motion estimate remains north-northeastward or 030/11 kt. Arthur made a slight northeastward jog earlier this evening, but now appears to have returned to its previous base course. A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours or so, keeping the cyclone well offshore the coasts of Florida and Georgia. A sharp shortwave trough currently moving across the southern Plains is forecast to dig east-southeast to southeastward over the next 48 hours, which will act to accelerate and eject Arthur more poleward. The more the shortwave trough digs and loses latitude, the more Arthur could get pulled closer to the North Carolina Outer Banks as per the GFS and HWRF scenarios. In contrast, the ECMWF and UKMET models show the shortwave losing amplitude quickly and lifting out, which acts to push Arthur farther away from the United States east coast. For now, the new NHC forecast track closely follows the various consensus models, which are about midway between the GFS-HWRF and ECMWF-UKMET solutions. However, the track was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous advisory track due mainly to the more eastward initial position. It should be noted that forecast track uncertainty is typically larger for weak systems like Arthur. Arthur has moved off of the warm waters of the Gulfstream current and currently is passing over a cold pool with SSTs near 24.5 deg C. These cooler waters should prevent any significant strengthening in the very near term. By 24 hours however, the cyclone is forecast to pass back over the warmer waters of the Gulfstream while moving into a very low vertical wind shear regime. These conditions, coupled with some cooler air aloft, should allow more vigorous convection to develop near the center, resulting in more strengthening as Arthur passes near the North Carolina coast. Extratropical transition should occur in about 48-60 hours over the much cooler waters of the North Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and is similar to the previous intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are possible there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 29.4N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 32.2N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 34.1N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 36.2N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 37.5N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0000Z 38.0N 69.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0000Z 38.0N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-05-17 04:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170252 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 77.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 77.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.2N 76.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.1N 75.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.2N 73.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.5N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.0N 69.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.0N 67.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 77.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression One Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-05-16 23:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 162135 CCA TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 2100 UTC SAT MAY 16 2020 CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WATCH END POINT TO SURF CITY IN SUMMARY CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 78.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.7N 78.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.4N 77.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 76.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.1N 72.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 78.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression One Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-05-16 23:20:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162120 CCA TCDAT1 Tropical Depression One Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Corrected Key Message number 2 Satellite images, Doppler radar data, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system located just east of the coast of central Florida has developed sufficient organization to now be classified as a tropical depression. The low-level center is well defined and deep convection has persisted near the center and in bands on the east side of the circulation for the past several hours. The cyclone is considered tropical instead of subtropical because it has central deep convection and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on data collected earlier today by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening. Based on satellite data and the earlier reconnaissance fixes, the initial motion of the system is north-northeastward at 11 kt. A continued north-northeastward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours or so, keeping the cyclone offshore, but parallel to, the east coast of Florida. After that time, the model solutions begin to diverge and the details of the track forecast become more complicated. The important features for the future track of the depression appear to be a pair of mid- to upper-level troughs currently over the central U.S. The specific amplitude, timing, and location of those troughs will ultimately result in how close to the coast of North Carolina this system gets. The GFS and HWRF models are on the left side of the guidance and bring the system inland or along the coast, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show an offshore track. The NHC track forecast splits the difference of these solutions, and lies close to the various consensus models, which usually perform best. It should be noted that forecast uncertainty is typically larger for weak systems like this one. The system should gradually strengthen during the next couple of days as it remains over the Gulf Stream current and in relatively low wind shear conditions. However, the surrounding air mass is not particularly moist, so that and the marginally warm SSTs should limit significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm tonight or on Sunday with continued slow strengthening as it nears the North Carolina coast. Extratropical transition should occur in about 3 days, or sooner. The NHC intensity forecast generally lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are possible there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. See products from your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 28.4N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 29.7N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 31.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 33.0N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 37.1N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1800Z 38.0N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression One Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-05-16 22:39:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162039 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Satellite images, Doppler radar data, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system located just east of the coast of central Florida has developed sufficient organization to now be classified as a tropical depression. The low-level center is well defined and deep convection has persisted near the center and in bands on the east side of the circulation for the past several hours. The cyclone is considered tropical instead of subtropical because it has central deep convection and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on data collected earlier today by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening. Based on satellite data and the earlier reconnaissance fixes, the initial motion of the system is north-northeastward at 11 kt. A continued north-northeastward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours or so, keeping the cyclone offshore, but parallel to, the east coast of Florida. After that time, the model solutions begin to diverge and the details of the track forecast become more complicated. The important features for the future track of the depression appear to be a pair of mid- to upper-level troughs currently over the central U.S. The specific amplitude, timing, and location of those troughs will ultimately result in how close to the coast of North Carolina this system gets. The GFS and HWRF models are on the left side of the guidance and bring the system inland or along the coast, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show an offshore track. The NHC track forecast splits the difference of these solutions, and lies close to the various consensus models, which usually perform best. It should be noted that forecast uncertainty is typically larger for weak systems like this one. The system should gradually strengthen during the next couple of days as it remains over the Gulf Stream current and in relatively low wind shear conditions. However, the surrounding air mass is not particularly moist, so that and the marginally warm SSTs should limit significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm tonight or on Sunday with continued slow strengthening as it nears the North Carolina coast. Extratropical transition should occur in about 3 days, or sooner. The NHC intensity forecast generally lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are possible there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. See products from your local National Weather Service for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 28.4N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 29.7N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 31.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 33.0N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 37.1N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1800Z 38.0N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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