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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-06-03 04:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-06-02 22:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022039 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the cyclone was named. Since that time, scatterometer data suggested that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a little above the subjective Dvorak estimates. Some strengthening could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive atmospheric and oceanic environment. However, it now seems likely that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday which should cause weakening. Assuming that the center emerges over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is forecast. However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should limit the increase in strength. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance. Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt. The system appears to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern Mexico. The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for the next few days. However, the slow, cyclonically looping movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, increasing southerly flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. The official track forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Given the spread in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the NHC forecast at days 4-5. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological service for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-06-02 22:38:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 022038 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-06-02 17:04:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021504 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the depression and has found that the system is very close to tropical storm strength. Based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at 30 kt for now. Since the cyclone is over very warm waters with fairly low vertical shear, intensification to a tropical storm should occur today. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. The intensity forecast later in the period is dependent on how much shear the system will encounter over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this is somewhat uncertain. For now, the intensity forecast will remain conservative. The initial motion estimate is slowly westward, or 270/3 kt. The cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents over the Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days, with the system moving slowly within a broader gyre over eastern Mexico. Global models show the cyclone being trapped between two mid-level anticyclones until later in the week, when some increase in southerly flow should begin to carry the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline. The official track forecast closely follows the dynamical model consensus. At this time, both the track and intensity forecasts are of low confidence. However, for the next couple of days, the main threat from this slow-moving cyclone is from widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.5N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.5N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.0N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 18.8N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 18.9N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 19.8N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 26.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-06-02 17:00:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 021500 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 92.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 92.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 92.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 92.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N 91.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.8N 91.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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