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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-05-18 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 Arthur remains poorly organized in both satellite and radar imagery this morning, with the low-level center located near the southwestern edge of a complex of ragged convective bands. Surface observations from buoys off of the North Carolina coast suggest the central pressure has fallen a little since the last aircraft fix, so the intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory. The next aircraft is scheduled to reach Arthur between 11-12Z. Arthur's forward speed has increased with the initial motion now 020/12. A baroclinic trough and associated surface front approaching from the west should cause Arthur to turn northeastward during the next several hours, with the forecast track showing the center passing near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. By Tuesday and Tuesday night, Arthur will be entering the strong mid-latitude Westerlies, which will steer cyclone eastward for a day or two. After that time, Arthur or its remnants should turn southeastward and southward on the southwest side of a deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic. The latest guidance is showing a more southward motion after 60 h than seen previously, and the new forecast track is also nudged southward during that time. Arthur is moving near and almost parallel to the Gulf Stream, and the warm water could allow some strengthening before southwesterly shear increases significantly later today. The cyclone should merge with a frontal system and become extratropical in the 24-36 h period, with the global models indicating some increase in the winds north of the center as this occurs. The intensity forecast calls for Arthur to reach a 50 kt intensity in 36 h as an extratropical low in best agreement with the GFS model. After 48 h, the system should decay, and the global models suggest it should dissipate in the 96-120 h period. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there today. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 33.5N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 36.5N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 36.5N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0600Z 35.6N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/1800Z 34.4N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z 31.0N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-05-18 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180834 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 76.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 76.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.5N 72.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.5N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 35.6N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.4N 65.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 31.0N 63.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-05-18 04:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180256 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Arthur's appearance in radar and satellite imagery has degraded significantly since the previous advisory with very little convective banding features present now. However, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone late this afternoon and early has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 46 kt in the eastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface wind speeds of 36-38 kt, plus a central pressure of 1003 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt for this advisory since higher wind speeds could be present within areas of convection north of the center that were not sampled. Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Arthur has continued to move north-northeastward or 020/09 kt. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward on Monday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and frontal system, and remain just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. By Tuesday night, Arthur will be entering the strong mid-latitude Westerlies, which will steer cyclone eastward and also induce extratropical transition when the cyclone merges with the aforementioned frontal system. The new NHC track guidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant cross-track changes were required. However, some slight changes to the forward were required on days 2 and 3, and the new NHC track forecast now shows Arthur moving a little faster to the east and southeast on those days. Arthur is currently moving over the warmest waters in the Gulfstream where ocean temperatures are 26-26.5 deg C. However, some mid-level shear undercutting the otherwise upper-level outflow pattern, coupled with the entrainment of dry mid-level air has disrupted the overall convective pattern. These unfavorable conditions should continue for the next coupe of days, with only intermittent bursts of deep convection occuring near the center until Arthur passes northeast of the Outer Banks by late Monday. Thereafter, baroclinic effects along with extratropical transition are expected to cause some further strengthening before weakening begins late Tuesday and on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast follows a blend of the intensity consensus model IVCN, and the GFS and ECMWF model forecasts. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 32.4N 76.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 34.0N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 35.8N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 36.4N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0000Z 36.0N 67.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/1200Z 35.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 33.8N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z 31.6N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-05-18 04:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180253 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 76.9W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 76.9W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.0N 75.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 35.8N 73.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.4N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.0N 67.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.8N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 31.6N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 76.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BERG
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-05-17 22:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172032 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Arthur's satellite presentation has not changed much since the previous advisory. There are still some fragmented convective bands over the eastern portions of the circulation, but convective activity remains limited over the western half of the storm. A late-arriving ASCAT overpass from around the time of the previous advisory revealed somewhat lower wind speeds than reported by this morning's reconnaissance aircraft. This could be the result of the convection becoming more fragmented after the aircraft sampled that portion of the storm or related to the low bias of the ASCAT instrument. Regardless, the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 40 kt for now. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Arthur this evening. Arthur is forecast to remain within a low wind shear environment and over marginally warm sea surface temperatures through early Monday. These conditions favor some strengthening, however the sprawling structure of the cyclone and nearby dry mid-level air are likely to temper any increase in wind speed. After 36-48 hours, baroclinic forcing is expected to help the post-tropical cyclone maintain its intensity. Later in the period, the frontal gradients decrease which should cause weakening. Recent satellite fixes show that the Arthur is still moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt. The tropical storm should begin to accelerate northeastward overnight as a mid-level trough moves into the eastern United States. By Tuesday night, the steering flow is expected to become westerly which should cause Arthur to turn eastward, then southeastward later in the forecast period. The lastest dynamical track guidance has come into a little better agreement through 36-48 hours with the GFS and ECMWF converging on the previous NHC track. As a result, little change was needed to the first couple of days of the earlier NHC track forecast. After that time, most of the guidance has trended toward a faster eastward and east-southeastward motion, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly in that direction as well. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 31.5N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 33.1N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 35.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 36.6N 71.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 36.8N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0600Z 36.3N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 35.6N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 34.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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