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Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-05-27 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271432 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 The circulation of Bertha remained compact yet well-defined through landfall, which occurred around 930 AM EDT near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. Buoy data around that time indicated that maximum sustained winds had increased to around 45 kt. Although the center has moved inland, a strong rain band with onshore flow continues to slowly migrate northward along the South Carolina coast. Therefore it is anticipated that tropical-storm-force winds will remain possible in the warning area over the next few hours. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, then weaken to a remnant low tonight as the center moves farther inland. Model guidance is in good agreement on taking the weakening cyclone north to north-northwestward through tonight, followed by a turn to the north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed later on Thursday. This official track is only slightly east of the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across portions of eastern to central South Carolina into west central to far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia. Ongoing river flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region. 2. Bertha is expected to continue to bring tropical storm winds to portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area over next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 33.3N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 35.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 38.8N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven
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Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-05-27 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 271432 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020 1500 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 79.5W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 79.5W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 35.2N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 38.8N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-05-27 14:09:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271209 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking over the past day or so has quickly become better organized this morning. The circulation has become better defined and the center has reformed beneath the area of deep convection just offshore of the coast of South Carolina. Recent NWS Doppler radar data from Charleston and buoy data indicates that the system is producing tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Bertha. The system will be moving inland very shortly and little, if any, additional strengthening is expected. Once inland, the small tropical cyclone should weaken rapidly and dissipated over central North Carolina on Thursday. There is very little continuity on the initial motion since the center has only recently formed. The best estimate of the initial motion is 320/8 kt. The system should continue to move generally northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. Bertha is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of eastern and central South Carolina, west-central to far southeastern North Carolina, and southwest Virginia. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. 2. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm winds to portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area in the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1230Z 32.7N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 33.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0600Z 35.8N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown
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Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-05-27 14:06:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1230 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 271206 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020 1230 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 79.4W AT 27/1230Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 79.4W AT 27/1230Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 33.2N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.8N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 79.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-05-19 16:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191446 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020 Arthur has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning with a warm front extending northeastward from the circulation, any deep convection only along the front, and lots of more stable cumulus clouds near the center. Thus this is the last advisory. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on continuity and model analyses. The main adjustments to the previous forecast include a quicker dissipation of the post-tropical cyclone, somewhat linked to the models showing a faster weakening after 12 hours, and a continuation of the westward shift in the track forecast in a day or two. These changes are consistent with the latest model consensus for track and similar to a GFS/ECMWF blend for intensity. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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