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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-06-03 13:57:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 031157 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 700 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 ...CRISTOBAL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 92.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 92.1 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the east this afternoon. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-03 10:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 08:49:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 08:49:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-06-03 10:47:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030847 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Cristobal has continued to get better organized this morning with the development of a small CDO feature over the low-level center, with cloud tops of -82C to -86C developing very near the center. Radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, also has shown an improvement in the central convective features, along with an increase in convective banding on the west side of the circulation, which previously had been devoid of any significant convection. Reports from nearby Mexican observations indicate that winds of 47-48 kt exist west of the center, which supports an intensity of 50 kt. The same observations support a minimum pressure of 994 mb. The aforementioned surface observation data and radar imagery indicate that Cristobal is now moving southeastward or 140/03 kt. There could be some erratic motion this morning due to land interaction with the inner-core wind field, but the general motion should remain southeastward toward the coast of Mexico. By this afternoon, a turn toward the east is expected, driving the cyclone inland over southeastern Mexico where it could meander for the next day or two. By 48 hours, the global and regional models are in good agreement on the development of a long fetch of southerly flow on the east side of Cristobal between the cyclone's center and a ridge over the Bahamas and Hispaniola, which will act to lift the tropical storm slowly northward toward the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours and beyond, mid-latitude ridging amplifies over the southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas, which will increase the southerly steering flow, causing Cristobal to accelerate northward on day 4 over the central Gulf, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on day 5 near the south-central U.S. Gulf coast. The models are in very good agreement on this overall developing scenario, with only timing differences on when and how fast the cyclone will lift out away from Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN and NOAA-HCCA. Some additional slight strengthening remains possible this morning before Cristobal moves inland over southeastern Mexico. Weakening is likely this afternoon and tonight while the circulation after landfall. The intensity forecast leans heavily on just how far inland Cristobal moves. For now, the cyclone is expected to remain relatively close to the warm Gulf waters, which should temper the rate of weakening typically experienced by inland tropical cyclones. But if Cristobal moves as far inland as Guatemala like the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting, the cyclone would be considerably weaker and the wind field more expansive on days 3-5. The official intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-03 10:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 the center of Cristobal was located near 18.9, -92.0 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-06-03 10:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030844 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 92.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 92.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 92.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 92.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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