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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-03 19:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 17:39:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 15:24:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-03 16:56:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 14:56:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 15:24:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-06-03 16:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 031455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and imagery from the Sabancuy radar in Mexico indicate that the center of Cristobal made landfall in the state of Campeche just to the west of Ciudad del Carmen around 1330 UTC. Data from the aircraft and earlier surface reports indicate that the landfall intensity was about 50 kt. Now that the center of circulation has moved inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. However, the large circulation will take some time to spin down. It is anticipated that Cristobal will weaken to a depression by tomorrow evening. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico so some re-strengthening is predicted. However, the global models show increased southwesterly shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this should limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. However, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend. The storm has been moving slowly south-southeastward, or 150/3 kt. Over the next couple of days, Cristobal should move slowly in a cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre over Central America and eastern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should turn northward into a weakness in the mid-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 18.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 18.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1200Z 20.0N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/0000Z 21.5N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 23.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1200Z 31.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 8
2020-06-03 16:54:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 031454 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING WILL CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 92.0W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning west of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 92.0 West. Cristobal is moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the east is expected later today. A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the Gulf of Mexico by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Berg
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-06-03 16:54:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 031454 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FRONTERA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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