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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-06-03 01:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 022357 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 92.3W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Cristobal is meandering generally southward near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane and surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) from the center. An automated weather station on a Mexican offshore platform recently measured a sustained wind of 48 mph with a gust to 62 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-02 22:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 20:41:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 20:41:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-06-02 22:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022039 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the cyclone was named. Since that time, scatterometer data suggested that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a little above the subjective Dvorak estimates. Some strengthening could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive atmospheric and oceanic environment. However, it now seems likely that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday which should cause weakening. Assuming that the center emerges over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is forecast. However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should limit the increase in strength. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance. Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt. The system appears to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern Mexico. The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for the next few days. However, the slow, cyclonically looping movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, increasing southerly flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. The official track forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Given the spread in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the NHC forecast at days 4-5. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological service for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 5
2020-06-02 22:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 022039 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 92.5W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.5 West. Cristobal is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-06-02 22:39:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 022039 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FRONTERA MX 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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