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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-28 07:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 28 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 34.6, -69.0 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 18A
2014-08-28 07:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 280533 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 200 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 ...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 69.0W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-28 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 02:34:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 02:32:46 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-08-28 04:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280232 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014 Cristobal has a fairly circular area of deep convection over the estimated low-level center, with cloud tops occasionally to -70 deg C. The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The symmetric appearance of the cloud pattern suggests that vertical shear has not yet become very strong, but the latest SHIPS guidance indicates a significant increase in shear in 18-24 hours. The hurricane could strengthen some over the next day or two as a tropical cyclone, or due to baroclinic processes. The official intensity forecast is close to the intensity model consensus through 36 hours, and a little above it thereafter. Extratropical transition is likely to have occurred by 48 hours since the global models depict the system as fully embedded within a frontal zone by that time. Post-tropical Cristobal is likely to be an intense extratropical cyclone with winds to hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. The hurricane is beginning to accelerate northeastward, and the motion estimate is 050/17. The track forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. Cristobal is currently rounding the northwestern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone over the west-central Atlantic. A mid-latitude shortwave trough to the northwest of the hurricane should cause the hurricane, or its post-tropical counterpart, to accelerate further and move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is in good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA. The track, intensity and wind structure forecasts have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 34.1N 69.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 36.1N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 39.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 43.4N 51.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 47.5N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z 56.0N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 62.5N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-28 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA TOMORROW MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 27 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 34.1, -69.9 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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