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Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 24
2014-08-29 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 291449 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 38 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N 47.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-29 11:09:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 08:37:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 09:04:46 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2014-08-29 10:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 290836 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-29 10:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 29 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 42.1, -51.7 with movement NE at 49 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 23
2014-08-29 10:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290836 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014 ...CRISTOBAL RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.1N 51.7W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 49 MPH...80 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 49 MPH...80 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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