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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2014-08-28 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 282032 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 2100 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-28 17:09:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 14:46:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 15:04:45 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-08-28 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281445 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 The satellite presentation of Cristobal has become much more symmetric than at any earlier time during its life. The center is embedded within an area of deep convection and a warm spot has become evident in recent visible satellite images. T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 4.0 on the Dvorak Scale and the initial intensity is set at 65 kt. Some strengthening is expected today while the hurricane remains over warm water. The cyclone will begin to interact with a frontal zone tonight and should complete extratropical transition on Friday. The global models indicate that the extratropical low will remain a powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next few days. The low is forecast to merge with another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. Cristobal is moving northeastward at about 23 kt. The cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies during the next day or so. The updated NHC track is close to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance envelope. The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts of the extratropical low have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 36.9N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 39.7N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 43.8N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 48.0N 43.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1200Z 51.5N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z 61.1N 25.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-28 16:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL HEADING FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 28 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 36.9, -65.9 with movement NE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 20
2014-08-28 16:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 ...CRISTOBAL HEADING FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.9N 65.9W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY....AND CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. LARGE SWELLS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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