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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-08-25 23:16:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 252116 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 Corrected forecast motion through 72 hours Cristobal remains in a moderate shear environment with the low-level center still fully exposed on the north side of the deep convection. A recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight indicated maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 65 kt in the southeast quadrant where SFMR winds of 51 kt were noted, and the central pressure has remained at 993 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been held at 50 kt. Aircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is now moving at a more reliable north-northeastward motion of 020/04 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance continues to be in excellent agreement on the subtropical ridge to the north of Cristobal slowly eroding due to a strong mid/upper-level trough just off the U.S. southeast coast continuing to dig southward as noted in water vapor imagery. The combination of increasing southwesterly flow on the east side of the trough and a building ridge to the south of the cyclone should act to lift Cristobal slowly northeastward over the next 72 hours. After that, Cristobal is forecast to become embedded in deep mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate off to the northeast and east-northeast, becoming a large and powerful extratropical cyclone over the far north Atlantic by 120 hours. The official forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies just to the right of the consensus model TVCA. The shear is forecast to ebb and flow over the next 48 hours or so, and the intensity forecast has followed this trend with strengthening indicated during the periods when the vertical shear subsides. Cristobal is still expected to become a hurricane when the cyclone passes to the west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. On Days 4 and 5, Cristobal will be passing over much cooler waters and encountering strong southwesterly wind shear as the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which will result in extratropical transition by 120 hours. However, the system is likely to receive a boost from baroclinic effects, remaining as a strong extratropical cyclone. Owing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possible flooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue across Bermuda through Wednesday ahead of Cristobal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 25.3N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 26.6N 71.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 28.9N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 31.2N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 33.4N 68.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 38.1N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 44.3N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 51.5N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-25 23:11:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 20:52:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 21:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2014-08-25 22:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 252054 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 20(43) X(43) X(43) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-25 22:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 25.3, -72.5 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 9
2014-08-25 22:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 252053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 72.5W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND PASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES... 335 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ON MAYAGUANA ISLAND AND ALSO IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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