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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 5A
2014-08-25 01:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242339 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING ERRATICALLY BUT GENERALLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 73.1W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-24 23:11:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 20:49:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 21:05:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-08-24 22:51:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 242050 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Cristobal's convective cloud pattern has not changed much during the past 6 hours, other than cloud tops having warmed some. Aircraft and satellite data indicate that the inner-core wind field is still broad, with multiple small swirls rotating around a mean center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data indicate the central pressure has remained steady at 1001 mb, so the initial intensity will be kept at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is northward or 360/7 kt. The NHC model guidance has come into much better agreement on this cycle with the GFS track having shifted westward and the ECMWF model having shifted eastward. The rest of the models are reasonably close to the GFS and ECMWF solutions. There is one main difference, however, which is the track speed, with the GFS model lagging behind the ECMWF model and some of the other models by more than 500 n mi at 120 hours. Cristobal is expected to continue moving northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge and slow down over the next 72 hours as a strong upper-level trough east of North Carolina lifts out to the northeast. A second trough currently over the upper Midwest is forecast to dig southeastward along the U.S. east coast by Days 4 and 5 and accelerate the cyclone northeastward over the north Atlantic. The official forecast track has been shifted eastward through 72 hours, and then shows a faster forward speed similar to the ICON consensus model at 96 and 120 hours. Light to moderate northwesterly to northerly shear is forecast to affect Cristobal through 72 hours, which should allow for only slow strengthening to occur. When Cristobal makes a northeastward turn and accelerates after that time, the shear is expected to decrease while the cyclone is over near-29C SST, which should allow Cristobal to strengthen into a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus intensity model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 24.5N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 24.9N 73.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 25.7N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 26.6N 72.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 28.4N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 31.9N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 35.0N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 39.5N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-24 22:49:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 24.5, -73.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 5
2014-08-24 22:49:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242049 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 73.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ENE OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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