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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-29 22:52:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292052 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Visible satellite imagery and surface observations along the west-central coast of Mexico suggest that the center of Nora has re-formed closer to a mass of deep convection that has persisted today over the southern Gulf of California. Various satellite data sets indicate that Nora is weakening. The latest SSMIS microwave data reveal that the structure of Nora has degraded since this morning, especially in the mid-levels where an eyewall structure is no longer evident. Additionally, a 15 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows the winds are substantially weaker than previously estimated. Thus, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is somewhat uncertain given the earlier center relocation, but it is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt. The global models suggest the tropical cyclone will move generally northwestward over the next couple of days, between an upper-level low offshore the Baja California peninsula and a mid-level ridge to the east of Nora. This motion should keep the center of Nora along the coast, or just inland over mainland west-central or northwestern Mexico. The official NHC track forecast is once again shifted a little to the right based on the latest track guidance, which brings the cyclone further inland by Tuesday. Nora is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days as the system continues to interact with the coastline of Mexico. Despite warm SSTs in the Gulf of California and weak environmental shear, it appears unlikely that Nora will move far enough away from the coast to take advantage of this favorable environment. In fact, it is certainly plausible that the center of Nora could move well inland earlier than forecast and weaken more rapidly. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted about 10 kt weaker at all forecast hours based on today's data supporting a much weaker initial intensity. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength while it moves near the coast of Sinaloa and southern Sonora through early Tuesday, and tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 24.3N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 30/0600Z 25.1N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 30/1800Z 25.8N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 31/0600Z 26.5N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 31/1800Z 27.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0600Z 28.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 28.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-08-29 22:51:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 635 FOPZ14 KNHC 292051 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 32(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 58 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-29 22:51:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA TO CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Nora was located near 24.3, -107.5 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 17
2021-08-29 22:51:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 983 WTPZ34 KNHC 292051 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA TO CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 107.5W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch north of Topolobampo to Huatabampito. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Mazatlan to Escuinapa has been discontinued, and the Tropical Storm Watch from Cabo San Lucas to La Paz has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mazatlan to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Topolobampo to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of Sonora should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 107.5 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue through early this week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner than forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Jalisco to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-29 22:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 292050 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF MAZATLAN TO ESCUINAPA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 107.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 107.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.1N 108.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.8N 108.8W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 109.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 27.2N 109.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.2N 110.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.9N 111.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 107.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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