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Remnants of Nora Graphics
2021-08-30 10:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 08:53:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 09:34:15 GMT
Remnants of Nora Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-30 10:53:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300852 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Nora Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Satellite analysts have been unable to identify a low-level center associated with Nora, and scatterometer and synoptic data show no surface circulation. Therefore the system has dissipated and this is the last advisory on this system. However, the moisture field of Nora's remnants will continue to move poleward over the next few days and could contribute to rainfall enhancement over the southwestern United States later this week. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain associated with Nora's remnants is expected across the states of Sinaloa and Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall from the remnants of Nora is also likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies beginning Wednesday, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 25.3N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Remnants of Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-30 10:51:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA DISSIPATES BUT HEAVY RAINS AND MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 the center of Nora was located near 25.3, -108.1 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Remnants of Nora Public Advisory Number 19
2021-08-30 10:51:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Nora Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...NORA DISSIPATES BUT HEAVY RAINS AND MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 108.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Nora were located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 108.1 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion should continue for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is likely during the next 24 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the remnants of Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches is possible along the coast of Sinaloa associated with the remnants of Nora. This rainfall will produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. The remnant moisture from Nora will lift across Sonora Tuesday through Thursday producing 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This may produce scattered flash flooding and mudslides. Beginning Wednesday, moisture associated with the remnants of Nora will bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by the remnants of Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-08-30 10:51:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300851 PWSEP4 REMNANTS OF NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF NORA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS... 30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH