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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-26 22:38:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262037 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Scatterometer data from around midday showed that Nora has an expansive circulation with tropical-storm-force winds nearly reaching the coast of Mexico. The data also showed a possible center embedded within a larger area of light winds, but it is possible that there's another similar feature farther west where the instrument did not sample. Nora's winds remain 35 kt based on the ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB, and the center has been placed between the two dumb-belling vorticity maxima. Even with the updated position, Nora is moving toward the west-northwest (285/8 kt), to the south of mid-level ridging over the southern United States. A shortwave trough currently over the northern Rockies is expected to erode the ridge over the next 12-24 hours, allowing Nora to turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest by the weekend. Even with the GFS's solution of multiple swirls consolidating over the next day or so, the 12Z run shifted left and now shows Nora potentially moving inland over Mexico farther west than it had in previous runs. A few of the other models--for example the HWRF and HMON--also bring the center inland as well, but the bulk of the interpolated model trackers continue to keep Nora just offshore but very near the coast of southwestern Mexico in about 48 hours. Model spread remains larger than normal, but no significant changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast based on the latest guidance suite. After passing southwestern Mexico, Nora is expected to be over Baja California Sur or the Gulf of California on days 4 and 5. Moderate northeasterly shear continues to affect Nora, but that shear is expected to decrease to a less-intrusive magnitude during the next 24 hours. Along with warm sea surface temperatures of 28-30 degrees Celsius, a moist mid-level environment, and upper-level divergence, Nora is expected to strengthen in the coming days. The rate of intensification could, however, be tempered by Nora's large size and structure. Assuming Nora does not move inland over southwestern Mexico, the storm is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday and then possibly continue strengthening up until the point it reaches the Baja California Peninsula. Much of the intensity guidance is based on scenarios showing Nora moving inland, which is suppressing the intensity consensus aids. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is mostly based on the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since the parent ECMWF model does not show Nora moving inland. Given Nora's larger wind field, tropical-storm-force winds are likely to reach the coast of Mexico earlier than expected. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The Hurricane Watch issued earlier today also remains in effect. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday while it is near the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane watch and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.4N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 15.3N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 16.8N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 18.6N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 20.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 21.6N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.6N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR 120H 31/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-26 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 262037 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 35(56) 7(63) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 5(26) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 37(58) 7(65) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 12(38) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 54(63) 4(67) X(67) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 9(35) 1(36) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 26(36) X(36) 1(37) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 34 3 48(51) 9(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 105W 50 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 10(49) X(49) X(49) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 36(57) 5(62) 1(63) X(63) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 100W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 7(27) 1(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-26 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Nora was located near 13.4, -101.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-26 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 262036 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 101.7W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas tonight and on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 101.7 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected to begin tonight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Friday night and be very near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight or on Friday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-26 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 262036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.7W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.7W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 101.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 102.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.3N 103.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.8N 104.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N 105.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.6N 107.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 101.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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