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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-10 16:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101439 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 ...KEVIN EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 114.3W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 114.3 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-08-10 16:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 101439 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.9N 115.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.0N 116.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.1N 118.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.2N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 28.7N 131.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-08-10 16:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 101439 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 30 26(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 115W 50 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-10 10:46:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 08:46:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 08:46:01 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-10 10:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 the center of Kevin was located near 18.1, -113.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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