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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-09 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SLIGHTLY WEAKER KEVIN IS STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 9 the center of Kevin was located near 16.3, -110.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-09 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...SLIGHTLY WEAKER KEVIN IS STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 110.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 110.9 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A little strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, followed by a slow weakening trend thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-09 10:34:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 274 WTPZ21 KNHC 090834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-09 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 02:34:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 02:34:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-09 04:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090234 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 Satellite images indicate that Kevin has been relatively steady in strength over the past several hours. Deep convection is most organized near the center and over the western half of the circulation, with microwave images showing the center partially exposed. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 15 kt of northeasterly wind shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are largely unchanged and range from 45 to 55 kt, and based on that data the initial intensity is once again held at 50 kt. Kevin is moving westward at a relatively slow pace of 7 kt. There has been little change in the track forecast rationale. A general west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days as Kevin moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. The track models have trended a little to the north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. Despite being over warm 29 degree C waters and embedded in a moist air mass, northeasterly shear has limited the amount of strengthening during the past day or so. Since the shear is expected to continue, Kevin is only forecast to strengthen slowly during the next day or two. After that time, however, progressively cooler waters and a more stable environment should cause a gradual decay. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, following the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. The cyclone will likely become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period when it is expected to be over cool 22 C waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 17.2N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 18.0N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 18.7N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 19.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.1N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 23.5N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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