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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-09 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 110SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 60SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.4N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N 121.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.6N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 25.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-09 16:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:35:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:35:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-09 16:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin has been successfully battling moderate northeasterly wind shear overnight, as a large convective mass with cloud tops colder than -80 degrees C has persisted for several hours over the center and southwestern portion of the cyclone's large circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates have a large spread, ranging from 55 kt from TAFB to 35 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. A mean of 45 kt from these values suggest that the storm's initial intensity remains the same as 6 h ago, which seems reasonable as the overall appearance of Kevin has changed little this morning. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 300/07 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain in tact for the next several days, resulting in a continued west-northwestward motion. The only notable change in the track guidance was a slight shift to the north, and the latest NHC track forecast lies in between the previous one and the tightly clustered track guidance. The favorable thermodynamic environment and warm water have allowed Kevin to maintain deep convection despite the vertical wind shear. With the large amount of convection occurring near and over the center of the cyclone, it is possible for some slight strengthening to occur in the short-term, despite wind shear persisting over the next couple of days. By 48 hours, Kevin will begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures of less than 23 degrees C, which should result in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast was decreased slightly from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the various intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.6N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 19.7N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 23.0N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 24.5N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-09 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 091432 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 42(42) 31(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA CLARION 50 X 11(11) 21(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 26(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-09 16:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO BATTLE WIND SHEAR... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 9 the center of Kevin was located near 16.6, -111.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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