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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-08 10:40:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 08:40:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 09:22:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-08 10:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 Kevin has changed little overnight. Microwave data and infrared satellite imagery reveal that its convective bands are still somewhat fragmented with only modest curvature. Recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer passes were available to better assess the cyclone's current intensity. The cyclone continues moving westward, or 270 degrees, at around 9 kt. This motion is expected for another 12 to 24 h, before a mid- to upper-level trough weakens the steering ridge and causes Kevin to move west-northwestward through midweek. Kevin is forecast to pass near or just south of Clarion Island on Tuesday. The track guidance is in good agreement for much of the forecast period, and the latest official NHC forecast lies near the previous one and generally follows the multi-model consensus aids. Kevin appears primed for some strengthening, as the cyclone will remain in a moist, unstable environment with ample oceanic heat content for the next couple of days. However, persistent northeasterly wind shear of 15-20 kt will likely curtail rapid intensification in an otherwise favorable environment. Despite the shear, the guidance supports strengthening in the near-term, and the official NHC forecast shows Kevin becoming a hurricane on Monday. The cyclone's intensity is forecast to level off by Tuesday, with weakening thereafter as Kevin moves over cooler waters and continues to battle moderate shear. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but remains near or slightly above the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and IVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.8N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-08 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080837 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 28 27(55) 2(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 15N 110W 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 13(19) 8(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 30(38) 41(79) 1(80) X(80) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 37(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 37(48) 3(51) X(51) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 5(43) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-08 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 8 the center of Kevin was located near 15.8, -108.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-08 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 ...KEVIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 108.7W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 108.7 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a west-northwestward motion on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today, and spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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