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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 35
2021-07-08 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 082036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 78.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 78.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.7N 75.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 47.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 51.5N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 56.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-08 19:58:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 17:58:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 15:23:05 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-08 19:58:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO VIRGINIA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 the center of Elsa was located near 35.6, -79.0 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 34A
2021-07-08 19:58:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 081758 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...ELSA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 79.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move over North Carolina today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A NOAA-NOS weather station in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) gusting to 50 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 34
2021-07-08 16:58:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 081458 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Surface synoptic observations and high-resolution satellite images indicate that the center of the storm has moved into North Carolina. WSR 88-D Doppler radar data and surface reports indicate that the maximum winds are near 40 kt. These highest winds are likely occurring in some of the stronger convective bands near the coast. Elsa is gradually accelerating toward the northeast, and the initial motion is about 040/17 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada during the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and continues to follow the multi-model consensus. Some slight intensification is possible within the next 24-36 hours due to baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude short wave trough. Around 36 hours, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models depicts a cloud pattern resembling that of a frontal cyclone. Moreover, the FSU phase analyses of the GFS fields shows the system becoming extratropical at that time. This is also reflected in the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across North Carolina and Virginia today, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today and the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 35.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 40.6N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 49.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0000Z 53.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z 59.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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