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Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-07-05 16:57:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 14:57:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-07-05 16:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 051456 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) 1(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 3(23) X(23) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) X(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 17(30) X(30) X(30) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 17(27) X(27) X(27) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 15(29) X(29) X(29) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) W PALM BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 3 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) KEY WEST FL 34 11 45(56) 1(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) KEY WEST FL 50 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 1 19(20) 17(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) VENICE FL 34 1 7( 8) 47(55) 7(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) VENICE FL 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X 3( 3) 33(36) 22(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 38(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) X(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 43 9(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) HAVANA 50 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HAVANA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-05 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 the center of Elsa was located near 21.5, -81.2 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 21
2021-07-05 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 81.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Ochlockonee River. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been extended westward to Indian Pass, Florida. The government of Cuba has discontinued all watches and warnings for the Cuban province of Camaguey. The government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 81.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) , and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Ochlockonee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-07-05 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 051455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. THE STORM SURGE WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 81.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 81.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 80.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 81.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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