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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-07-04 16:57:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041457 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 A NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa this morning. Flight-level and SFMR surface observations from the aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 50 kt and the estimated central pressure, about 1009 mb, is rather high for a system of this intensity. Also, tail Doppler radar data from the aircraft show an eastward tilt of the center with height. Nonetheless, the storm still looks fairly impressive on satellite images with a well-defined convective banding feature over the northern through eastern portions of the circulation. Also, the highest cloud tops are quite cold and near -70C. Elsa's forward speed has slowed a little more, and the current motion is around 290/11 kt. There hasn't been much change to the track forecast or reasoning since the previous advisory. Over the next few days, the tropical cyclone should move around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous official forecast, and close to the model consensus. The latest GFS and HWRF solutions are to the west of this forecast. Elsa should remain in a low-shear environment through Monday, and some strengthening is likely before the storm reaches Cuba, assuming the circulation becomes better aligned vertically. The storm should weaken somewhat due to its passage over Cuba. After the cyclone emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, only slight restrengthening is forecast due to moderate southwesterly shear. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the numerical intensity guidance suite. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica today where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday. 3. Tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts are expected beginning late Monday in the Florida Keys, and are possible along the coast of southwestern Florida beginning Monday night. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect in those areas. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Monday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 18.7N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.2N 78.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 23.4N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1200Z 24.7N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 28.6N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-04 16:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 14:56:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 14:56:10 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-04 16:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 the center of Elsa was located near 18.7, -76.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-07-04 16:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 041454 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) X(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 1(26) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 1(24) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) 1(27) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) X(20) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) X(26) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) X(20) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 3(19) X(19) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 3(19) X(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) MIAMI FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) MARATHON FL 34 X 7( 7) 29(36) 15(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X 6( 6) 33(39) 21(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 21(30) 14(44) 1(45) X(45) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 14(24) 1(25) X(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 27(42) 1(43) X(43) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 28(35) 3(38) 1(39) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 9(33) X(33) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANDROS 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 1 8( 9) 25(34) 6(40) 1(41) 1(42) X(42) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 69(69) 9(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 27(27) 9(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CIENFUEGOS 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 39 21(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CAMAGUEY 50 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 15 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) KINGSTON 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 17
2021-07-04 16:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041454 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 76.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach. The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Jamaica * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban province of Artemisa * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 76.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today or tonight. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys late Monday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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