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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-09-21 16:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211449 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 36.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 36.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 36.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.8N 37.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.9N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.3N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.4N 39.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 36.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Rose Graphics
2021-09-21 10:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 08:42:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 09:28:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-21 10:37:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210837 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 Rose has lost organization over the past several hours. Satellite images show a fully exposed low-level center with only a small area of deep convection lingering in the southeastern quadrant. The Dvorak classifications have decreased, and the initial intensity is nudged downward to 40 kt. Rose is moving northwestward at 17 kt. This general heading but with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the storm is steered by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level ridge. By late this week and over the weekend, a sharp turn to the north and then the northeast is expected as Rose becomes embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad deep-layer trough. Although there is some spread in the guidance, the models all show the same general theme. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The environment is expected to become increasingly unfavorable for Rose during the next several days with westerly shear increasing and dry air expected to wrap into the circulation. These conditions should promote a weakening trend, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by the weekend when it should be over cooler waters and in an environment of more than 30 kt of shear. Some of the models suggest that Rose could become a remnant low or open into a trough sooner than that, and if the current trend continues that is a distinct possibility. The new forecast is largely an update of the previous one, but does show the storm becoming a remnant low a day earlier. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 21.0N 36.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 22.4N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 23.8N 38.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 25.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 26.4N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 27.7N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 29.0N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 30.7N 36.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z 32.8N 31.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-21 10:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE BEGINS TO WEAKEN... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 21 the center of Rose was located near 21.0, -36.4 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 9
2021-09-21 10:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 ...ROSE BEGINS TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 36.4W ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 36.4 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days followed by a turn to the north. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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