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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-21 16:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 211452 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 64.7W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 64.7W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 65.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 67.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.4N 67.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 66.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.5N 64.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.8N 62.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 64.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Rose Graphics
2021-09-21 16:50:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 14:50:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 14:50:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-09-21 16:50:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 211450 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-21 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE GOING THROUGH A ROUGH PATCH... ...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM.... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 21 the center of Rose was located near 21.6, -36.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 10
2021-09-21 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 211450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 ...ROSE GOING THROUGH A ROUGH PATCH... ...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM.... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 36.9W ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 36.9 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm should gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days and move more to the northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rose could decay into a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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