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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-04 07:34:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 05:34:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 03:22:42 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-04 07:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA FURTHER EAST... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 the center of Elsa was located near 17.9, -75.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 15A
2021-07-04 07:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040534 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA FURTHER EAST... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 75.1W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). An additional decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will remain near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and then move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti during the next few hours, and on Jamaica and across eastern and central Cuba later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Cayman Islands by tonight and in western Cuba and the Florida Keys tonight and Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature. Across portions of Cuba today and Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today and Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-04 05:00:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 03:00:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 03:22:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-07-04 05:00:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040259 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Elsa is undergoing a convective bursting pattern the past few hours, with some cold overshooting tops of -90 deg C east and northeast of the center. However, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that this convective increase has not translated into an intensity increase. To the contrary, 5000-ft flight-level and SFMR surface winds have decreased while the central pressure has increased to 1004 mb. Based on the latest recon data, the intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. The aircraft has now climbed to 10,000 ft for safety reasons and will be penetrating the area of intense convection to check for stronger winds there. The initial motion estimate is now 295/15 kt. Elsa is forecast to gradually move around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the next 96 hours, accompanied by an additional decrease in forward speed. The latest model guidance has continued to converge along the previous advisory track, with the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE nearly on top of each other. The TCVA simple consensus model is also similar to the HCCA and FSSE models. However, out of respect for the slightly more westward GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which have performed admirably thus far with Elsa, the new official forecast lies a tad west of the aforementioned consensus models and lies nearly on top of the previous advisory track. After interacting with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Haiti, which could have caused some disruption in the low-level field despite the center remaining offshore, little change in intensity is expected tonight. However, some slight restrengthening could occur by Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba where the sea-surface temperatures are quite warm at more than 30 deg C and the water is deep. Weakening is expected after the cyclone moves across west-central Cuba, followed again by some slight restrengthening after Elsa emerges over the warm Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida. Westerly vertical wind shear increasing to near 20 kt by 96 hours should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. Elsa should become a very asymmetrical tropical cyclone late on day 3 and on day 4 with most of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the east of the forecast track. The initial intensity is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the simple and corrected consensus models. Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.9N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.2N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 22.5N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 24.1N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 28.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 32.7N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/0000Z 37.7N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin
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