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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-19 10:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190859 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be considered a tropical storm. While the organization is not classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics, the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system is now Tropical Storm Claudette. The initial wind speed remains 40 kt, in line with surface observations and radar. These winds are primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the cyclone well away from the center. Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt. The storm should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone. The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to 72 hours. Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new intensity forecast is more conservative than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory. Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts along the northern Gulf coast will continue. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 29.6N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/1800Z 30.9N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 32.2N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z 33.3N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/0600Z 34.2N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 21/1800Z 35.8N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 22/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96H 23/0600Z 47.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Claudette Graphics
2021-06-19 10:58:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 08:58:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 09:23:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-06-19 10:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 190858 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 3( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 4 11(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WHITING FLD FL 34 12 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 34 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 72 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-19 10:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORMS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Claudette was located near 29.6, -90.7 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-19 10:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190858 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.7W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.7W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.9N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.2N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.3N 84.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.2N 80.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.8N 76.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 47.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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