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Tropical Storm Claudette Public Advisory Number 7
2021-06-19 10:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190858 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORMS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 90.7W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located inland near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 90.7 West. Claudette is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with a turn toward the east-northeast expected by tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland over Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions of the Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend, and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. The system is forecast to re-develop over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts are possible across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across the remainder of the Central Gulf Coast. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will expand across central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area today. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-19 10:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190852 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Dolores appears to be in another bursting pattern coincident with the diurnal max this morning, as deep convection and cold cloud tops have increased in coverage and intensity near the estimated low-level center. A distinct curved band has also formed along the storm's southern semicircle. The latest Dvorak subjective intensity estimates were both T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, though the most recent CIMSS-ADT intensity estimate was only T3.0/45 kt. Unfortunately there has not been no recent microwave or scatterometer data available to better assess the inner core structure of the cyclone. Blending the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the maximum sustained winds was raised to 50 kt for this advisory, though this value may be conservative. Dolores appears to be making a slow right turn as the storm gradually accelerates while it rounds the western side of a mid-level ridge, currently moving at 330/9 kt. A gradual acceleration toward the north-northwest is anticipated until landfall with this motion continuing until the storm dissipates over the high terrain of western Mexico. The latest track forecast is a bit to the east of the previous forecast cycle but remains in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. On this track, Dolores is expected to reach the Mexican coastline in the next 12 h and push far inland thereafter. Given the eastward adjustment in the forecast track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane watch further to the southeast for this advisory. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional intensification right up until landfall along the Mexican coast, close to Punta San Telmo, in about 12 h. The current forecast intensity for 60 kt in 12 hours is a bit higher than the guidance consensus, as few models already have the storm inland at that time. Rapid weakening is forecast as Dolores moves inland over western Mexico thereafter and the storm will likely dissipate by 36 h, if not sooner. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today up until landfall, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by this afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.0N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-19 10:51:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES INTENSIFIES FURTHER... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTED... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Dolores was located near 17.0, -103.1 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-06-19 10:51:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 190851 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 18 18(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MANZANILLO 34 68 8(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) MANZANILLO 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 72 X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 5
2021-06-19 10:51:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES INTENSIFIES FURTHER... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 103.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo southward to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.1 West. Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual acceleration prior to landfall. Dolores is forecast to make landfall along the southwest coast of Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have incrased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected prior to landfall, and Dolores is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall and Dolores is expected to dissipate by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late this morning and afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will possible within the tropical storm watch area this evening through Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit through the weekend. This will likely produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Additionally, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches is expected for western Oaxaca, as well as southern Sinaloa. This may produce life threatening flash flooding. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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