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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 After being nearly devoid of deep convection for much of the night, a new burst of convection has redeveloped near the center of the cyclone's circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. Carlos is moving west-southwest at 7 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is now in good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, and a little faster and south of it beyond that time. Most guidance remains to the left of the latest NHC forecast, so additional adjustments may be required later today. Satellite images show a vast area of dry and stable air to the north and west of Carlos, with stratocumulus being drawn into the western portion of the cyclone's circulation. This undoubtedly helped to contribute to the sputtering of convective activity overnight. The ongoing intrusions of dry, stable air should continue to periodically disrupt the development of deep convection over the next day or so, which should cause Carlos to slowly weaken. By 36-48 h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into a remnant low by midweek. Thereafter, only sporadic convection is expected to develop in association with the remnant low as it gradually spins down. The latest NHC intensity forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and is in agreement with the bulk of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 11.3N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 10.9N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 10.6N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 10.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 10.2N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 10.2N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 10.3N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 10.7N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z 11.1N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics
2021-06-14 16:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Jun 2021 14:33:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Jun 2021 15:28:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics
2021-06-14 10:36:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Jun 2021 08:36:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Jun 2021 08:36:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-14 10:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The satellite presentation of Carlos has continued to erode early this morning, with only three remnant convective cells noted rotating around the center. As a result, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have fallen sharply. Thus, the initial intensity has also been lowered to 35 kt, which could be generous. The initial motion estimate is 255/06 kt. Carlos is forecast by the global and regional models to be steered west-southwestward to westward throughout the 5-day period by a strong low- to mid-level subtropical ridge situated to its north and northwest. The latest model guidance has come into much better agreement on this track scenario, especially compared to this time yesterday, and the new NHC track forecast follows suit and lies close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus track models. Although sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough to support a tropical cyclone, the continued ingestion of cooler, drier, and more stable air that now completely surrounds Carlos is forecast to continue to erode the central deep convection, with the cyclone weakening a tropical depression later today. By 36-48h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into a remnant low. Although there will likely be periodic short-lived bursts of convection, especially at night, the general trend should be gradual weakening throughout the 120-h forecast period, perhaps even faster than indicated by the official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 11.4N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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